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Hebar II vs Balkan Botevgrad — Third League - Southwest 2018

Hebar II
Hebar II
FT
4 – 1
Balkan Botevgrad
Balkan Botevgrad
4/9/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 28Stadion Saraya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hebar II44%
×Draw24%
Balkan Botevgrad31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebar II
1.62
Balkan Botevgrad
1.32

Hebar II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 131 away

creates per match

Hebar II
1.51
Balkan Botevgrad
1.27

allows per match

Hebar II
1.38
Balkan Botevgrad
1.73

finishing

Hebar II+0.00on par
Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar II ↓

Balkan Botevgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hebar II or draw
69%
Hebar II or Balkan Botevgrad
76%
Draw or Balkan Botevgrad
56%

Winning margin

Hebar II wins by 2+
23%
Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hebar II 1+ goals
80%
Hebar II 2+ goals
48%
Hebar II 3+ goals
22%
Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals
73%
Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals
38%
Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hebar II (draw refunded)
59%
Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

Balkan Botevgrad away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.73 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar II attack 1.51 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.62

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.27 + Hebar II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hebar II scores more
44%
level
24%
Balkan Botevgrad scores more
31%

Hebar II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hebar II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hebar II 4 – 1 Balkan Botevgrad

Hebar II beat Balkan Botevgrad 4-1 in Third League - Southwest on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Saraya in Saraya.