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Balkan Botevgrad vs Hebar II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Balkan Botevgrad
Balkan Botevgrad
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hebar II
Hebar II
9/2/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 6Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Balkan Botevgrad59%
×Draw23%
Hebar II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balkan Botevgrad
1.75
Hebar II
0.85

Balkan Botevgrad creates 106% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 38 away

creates per match

Balkan Botevgrad
1.89
Hebar II
0.55

allows per match

Balkan Botevgrad
1.15
Hebar II
1.61

finishing

Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par
Hebar II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balkan Botevgrad ↓

Hebar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Balkan Botevgrad or draw
82%
Balkan Botevgrad or Hebar II
77%
Draw or Hebar II
41%

Winning margin

Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+
33%
Hebar II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals
83%
Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals
52%
Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals
25%
Hebar II 1+ goals
57%
Hebar II 2+ goals
21%
Hebar II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)
77%
Hebar II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balkan Botevgrad at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 129 matches

Hebar II away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.89 + Hebar II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.75

Hebar II attack 0.55 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Balkan Botevgrad scores more
59%
level
23%
Hebar II scores more
18%

Balkan Botevgrad at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Balkan Botevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Balkan Botevgrad 2 – 1 Hebar II

Balkan Botevgrad beat Hebar II 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Botevgrad.