Hebar 1918 0–3 Dunav Ruse: Result & Stats

Hebar 1918

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Dunav Ruse

P. Bachev 90' (pen)

I. Keita 45'

B. El Bakkali Salah 5'

9/29/2025

Second League · Round 10Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Hebar 191845%

×Draw26%

Dunav Ruse29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hebar 1918Expected goals in this matchDunav Ruse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.15

Hebar 1918

1.48

Dunav Ruse

1.15

Hebar 1918 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 69 away

1.81

creates per match

1.19

1.11

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Hebar 1918

1.81

Dunav Ruse

1.19

allows per match

Hebar 1918

1.11

Dunav Ruse

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar 1918 ↓

Dunav Ruse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Hebar 1918 or draw

71%

Hebar 1918 or Dunav Ruse

74%

Draw or Dunav Ruse

55%

Winning margin

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+

22%

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hebar 1918 1+ goals

77%

Hebar 1918 2+ goals

43%

Hebar 1918 3+ goals

19%

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals

68%

Dunav Ruse 2+ goals

32%

Dunav Ruse 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)

60%

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar 1918 at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar 1918 attack 1.81 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.48

Dunav Ruse attack 1.19 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hebar 1918 scores more

45%

level

26%

Dunav Ruse scores more

29%

Hebar 1918 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hebar 1918 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

B. El Bakkali Salah

45'

G. Valchev← I. Dishkov

45'

K. Pavlov← M. Haydarov

45'

I. Keita

51'

R. Mazan← D. Kalchev

57'

62'

P. Bachev← I. Keita

62'

D. Minchev← K. Boychev

68'

K. Velchev← S. Malamov

68'

A. Petrov← M. Dadakov

76'

H. Kelyovluev← B. El Bakkali Salah

76'

S. Statev← B. Marinov

78'

87'

89'

K. Gospodinov← R. Apostolov

90'

P. BachevPenalty

Hebar

Dunav

18

⚽

▼

Keita

99

▼

Marinov

23

Kitanov

13

Aquila

14

▼

Apostolov

81

Dilchovsk

10

▼

Boychev

78

Sou

22

Predev

8

⚽

▼

Salah

26

Hadzhiev

10

Dotsev

23

▼

Dishkov

20

Lyubenov

19

▼

Dadakov

18

▼

Kalchev

55

▼

2

11

8

21

▼

Malamov

99

Yankov

Manager: V. Vutsov

45'▲G. Valchev←▼I. Dishkov

45'▲K. Pavlov←▼M. Haydarov

51'▲R. Mazan←▼D. Kalchev

68'▲K. Velchev←▼S. Malamov

68'▲A. Petrov←▼M. Dadakov

Hebar 1918 substitutes

12Gruev24Bozhurkin27Mazan14Angelov17Valchev29Velchev77Pavlov9Petrov70Mechev

Manager: G. Chilikov

62'▲P. Bachev←▼I. Keita

62'▲D. Minchev←▼K. Boychev

76'▲H. Kelyovluev←▼B. El Bakkali Salah

76'▲S. Statev←▼B. Marinov

89'▲K. Gospodinov←▼R. Apostolov

Dunav Ruse substitutes

1Kanev77Simeonov7Kelyovluev70Statev9Bachev15Gospodinov11Minchev