Hebar 1918 1–3 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Hebar 1918

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

I. Tilev 7'

Z. Petkov 82'

N. Zhelyazkov 18'

K. Dobrev 3'

4/27/2026

Second League · Round 30Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Hebar 191851%

×Draw25%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hebar 1918Expected goals in this matchChernomorets 1919 Burgas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.02

Hebar 1918

1.60

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

1.02

Hebar 1918 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 33 away

1.81

creates per match

0.94

1.11

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Hebar 1918

1.81

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

0.94

allows per match

Hebar 1918

1.11

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar 1918 ↓

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hebar 1918 or draw

76%

Hebar 1918 or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

75%

Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

49%

Winning margin

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+

27%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hebar 1918 1+ goals

80%

Hebar 1918 2+ goals

47%

Hebar 1918 3+ goals

22%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals

64%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals

27%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)

68%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar 1918 at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar 1918 attack 1.81 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.60

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 0.94 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hebar 1918 scores more

51%

level

25%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more

24%

Hebar 1918 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hebar 1918 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

3'

7'

18'

43'

45+3'

60'

A. Petrov← T. Chavorski

60'

K. Pavlov← R. Nepeypiev

69'

S. Stefanov← Z. Piplica

72'

S. Kamenov← Y. Angelov

77'

S. Malamov← D. Aleksandrov

80'

Correia

82'

S. Tisovski← Z. Pehlivanov

82'

Z. Petkov

87'

G. Staykov← Z. Petkov

90'

M. Kaishev

90+3'

D. Kostadinov

90+3'

J. Ivanov← K. Dobrev

90+3'

H. Hyusein← D. Kostadinov

Hebar

Chernomorets

12

Kaishev

6

Dimitrov

96

Sadetinov

10

▼

Kostadino

4

Avramov

9

⚽

▼

Petkov

3

Drame

23

▼

Piplica

11

⚽

▼

Dobrev

30

⚽

13

99

55

17

23

27

29

▼

Angelov

8

▼

Pehlivano

10

▼

Chavorski

33

⚽

Tilev

24

▼

Nepeypiev

11

▼

Aleksandr

Manager: Nikolay Mitov

60'▲A. Petrov←▼T. Chavorski

60'▲K. Pavlov←▼R. Nepeypiev

72'▲S. Kamenov←▼Y. Angelov

77'▲S. Malamov←▼D. Aleksandrov

82'▲S. Tisovski←▼Z. Pehlivanov

Hebar 1918 substitutes

1Gruev14Velchev15Vidinov88Tisovski21Malamov20Petrov77Pavlov19Dadakov2Kamenov

Manager: Angel Stoykov

69'▲S. Stefanov←▼Z. Piplica

87'▲G. Staykov←▼Z. Petkov

90+3'▲J. Ivanov←▼K. Dobrev

90+3'▲H. Hyusein←▼D. Kostadinov

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas substitutes

78Altanov66Staykov19Pavlov99Ivanov77Hamdiev15Slavov22Stefanov7Hyusein27Mitev

Match Recap: Hebar 1918 vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas beat Hebar 1918 3-1 in Second League on April 27, 2026.

Goals: K. Dobrev (3'), I. Tilev (7'), N. Zhelyazkov (18'), Z. Petkov (82').

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski in Pazardzhik.

Hebar 1918 vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hebar 1918 vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas