Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1–1 Hebar 1918

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hebar 1918

K. Krastev 40'

D. Todorov 85' (OG)

10/25/2025

Second League · Round 13Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas42%

×Draw28%

Hebar 191830%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chernomorets 1919 BurgasExpected goals in this matchHebar 1918

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.05

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

1.29

Hebar 1918

1.05

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas creates 23% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 56 away

1.21

creates per match

1.29

0.82

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

1.21

Hebar 1918

1.29

allows per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

0.82

Hebar 1918

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas ↓

Hebar 1918 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or draw

70%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or Hebar 1918

72%

Draw or Hebar 1918

58%

Winning margin

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+

19%

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals

72%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals

37%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals

14%

Hebar 1918 1+ goals

65%

Hebar 1918 2+ goals

28%

Hebar 1918 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)

58%

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.82 · 33 matches

Hebar 1918 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 1.21 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Hebar 1918 attack 1.29 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more

42%

level

28%

Hebar 1918 scores more

30%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

K. Krastev

46'

M. Haydarov← S. Van Dyke

48'

G. Valchev

60'

M. Tsonev

64'

K. Pavlov← R. Mazan

64'

S. Malamov← Y. Angelov

65'

S. Stefanov← M. Tsonev

65'

H. Hyusein← S. Traykov

68'

S. Stefanov

75'

Z. Petkov← K. Krastev

76'

M. Haydarov

78'

A. Petrov← N. Ganchev

82'

P. Georgiev← F. Esuma

82'

V. Dotsev← S. Kamenov

85'

D. TodorovOwn goal

90'

S. Dikov

Chernomorets

Hebar

99

Yankov

7

Tsvetanov

88

▼

Dyke

17

Valchev

20

Lyubenov

27

▼

Mazan

29

▼

Angelov

2

▼

Kamenov

11

Rusinov

8

▼

Ganchev

15

Dikov

1

🥅

19

13

3

27

21

▼

Esuma

4

Avramov

87

▼

Traykov

10

Kostadino

17

▼

Tsonev

29

⚽

▼

Krastev

Manager: Angel Stoykov

65'▲S. Stefanov←▼M. Tsonev

65'▲H. Hyusein←▼S. Traykov

75'▲Z. Petkov←▼K. Krastev

82'▲P. Georgiev←▼F. Esuma

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas substitutes

12Kaishev6Georgiev15Slavov22Stefanov7Hyusein9Petkov11Dobrev33Kostenski

Manager: Nikolay Mitov

46'▲M. Haydarov←▼S. Van Dyke

64'▲K. Pavlov←▼R. Mazan

64'▲S. Malamov←▼Y. Angelov

78'▲A. Petrov←▼N. Ganchev

82'▲V. Dotsev←▼S. Kamenov

Hebar 1918 substitutes

1Gruev9Petrov18Kalchev77Pavlov5Radev70Mechev55Haydarov21Malamov10Dotsev