Hebar 1918 2–0 Chavdar Etropole: Result & Stats

Hebar 1918

FT

2 – 0

Chavdar Etropole

9/8/2018

Third League - Southwest · Round 6Stadion Georgi Benkovski (Pazardzhik)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hebar 191857%

×Draw22%

Chavdar Etropole21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hebar 1918Expected goals in this matchChavdar Etropole

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.07

Hebar 1918

1.94

Chavdar Etropole

1.07

Hebar 1918 creates 81% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 87 away

2.53

creates per match

1.55

0.59

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Hebar 1918

2.53

Chavdar Etropole

1.55

allows per match

Hebar 1918

0.59

Chavdar Etropole

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar 1918 ↓

Chavdar Etropole →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Hebar 1918 or draw

79%

Hebar 1918 or Chavdar Etropole

78%

Draw or Chavdar Etropole

43%

Winning margin

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+

34%

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hebar 1918 1+ goals

86%

Hebar 1918 2+ goals

58%

Hebar 1918 3+ goals

30%

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals

66%

Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals

29%

Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)

74%

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar 1918 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar 1918 attack 2.53 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.94

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + Hebar 1918 defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hebar 1918 scores more

57%

level

22%

Chavdar Etropole scores more

21%

Hebar 1918 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hebar 1918 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff