Chavdar Etropole 0–1 Hebar 1918: Result & Stats

Chavdar Etropole

FT

0 – 1

Hebar 1918

3/23/2019

Third League - Southwest · Round 23Stadion Chavdar (Etropole)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chavdar Etropole37%

×Draw26%

Hebar 191837%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chavdar EtropoleExpected goals in this matchHebar 1918

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.30

Chavdar Etropole

1.31

Hebar 1918

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 17 away

2.08

creates per match

1.76

0.84

allows per match

0.53

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole

2.08

Hebar 1918

1.76

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole

0.84

Hebar 1918

0.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Hebar 1918 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw

63%

Chavdar Etropole or Hebar 1918

74%

Draw or Hebar 1918

63%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+

17%

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals

73%

Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals

38%

Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals

14%

Hebar 1918 1+ goals

73%

Hebar 1918 2+ goals

37%

Hebar 1918 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)

50%

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Hebar 1918 away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Hebar 1918 defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Hebar 1918 attack 1.76 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more

37%

level

26%

Hebar 1918 scores more

37%

Chavdar Etropole at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff