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Hebar 1918 vs Botev Plovdiv — First League 2026

Hebar 1918
Hebar 1918
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
10/30/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Hebar 191833%
×Draw28%
Botev Plovdiv39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebar 1918
1.10
Botev Plovdiv
1.23

Botev Plovdiv creates 12% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 136 away

creates per match

Hebar 1918
0.83
Botev Plovdiv
1.05

allows per match

Hebar 1918
1.40
Botev Plovdiv
1.38

finishing

Hebar 1918+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar 1918 ↓

Botev Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hebar 1918 or draw
61%
Hebar 1918 or Botev Plovdiv
72%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv
67%

Winning margin

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+
13%
Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hebar 1918 1+ goals
67%
Hebar 1918 2+ goals
30%
Hebar 1918 3+ goals
10%
Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals
71%
Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals
35%
Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)
46%
Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar 1918 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches

Botev Plovdiv away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.38 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar 1918 attack 0.83 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.10

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.05 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hebar 1918 scores more
33%
level
28%
Botev Plovdiv scores more
39%

Botev Plovdiv at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hebar 1918 vs Botev Plovdiv

Botev Plovdiv beat Hebar 1918 2-1 in First League on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Sofia.