Botev Plovdiv 1–1 Hebar 1918: Result & Stats

Botev Plovdiv

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hebar 1918

2/9/2025

First League · Round 20Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Botev Plovdiv51%

×Draw25%

Hebar 191824%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev PlovdivExpected goals in this matchHebar 1918

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.00

Botev Plovdiv

1.58

Hebar 1918

1.00

Botev Plovdiv creates 58% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 54 away

1.36

creates per match

0.91

1.08

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv

1.36

Hebar 1918

0.91

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv

1.08

Hebar 1918

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Plovdiv+0.00on par

Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv ↓

Hebar 1918 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv or draw

76%

Botev Plovdiv or Hebar 1918

75%

Draw or Hebar 1918

49%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+

26%

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals

79%

Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals

47%

Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals

21%

Hebar 1918 1+ goals

63%

Hebar 1918 2+ goals

26%

Hebar 1918 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)

68%

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 139 matches

Hebar 1918 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.81 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.36 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hebar 1918 attack 0.91 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Botev Plovdiv scores more

51%

level

25%

Hebar 1918 scores more

24%

Botev Plovdiv at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff