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Hebar 1918 vs Belasitsa — Third League - Southwest 2018

Hebar 1918
Hebar 1918
FT
1 – 0
Belasitsa
Belasitsa
11/3/2018Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 14Stadion Georgi Benkovski (Pazardzhik)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hebar 191860%
×Draw23%
Belasitsa18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebar 1918
1.79
Belasitsa
0.85

Hebar 1918 creates 111% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 62 away

creates per match

Hebar 1918
2.53
Belasitsa
1.11

allows per match

Hebar 1918
0.59
Belasitsa
1.06

finishing

Hebar 1918+0.00on par
Belasitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar 1918 ↓

Belasitsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hebar 1918 or draw
82%
Hebar 1918 or Belasitsa
77%
Draw or Belasitsa
40%

Winning margin

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+
34%
Belasitsa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hebar 1918 1+ goals
83%
Hebar 1918 2+ goals
53%
Hebar 1918 3+ goals
26%
Belasitsa 1+ goals
57%
Belasitsa 2+ goals
21%
Belasitsa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)
77%
Belasitsa (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar 1918 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Belasitsa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar 1918 attack 2.53 + Belasitsa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.79

Belasitsa attack 1.11 + Hebar 1918 defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hebar 1918 scores more
60%
level
23%
Belasitsa scores more
18%

Hebar 1918 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hebar 1918 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Hebar 1918 1–0 Belasitsa

Hebar 1918 beat Belasitsa 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski (Pazardzhik).