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Belasitsa vs Hebar 1918 — Third League - Southwest 2018

Belasitsa
Belasitsa
FT
0 – 3
Hebar 1918
Hebar 1918
5/11/2019Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 31Stadion Kolarovo (Kolarovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Belasitsa42%
×Draw25%
Hebar 191833%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belasitsa
1.50
Hebar 1918
1.29

Belasitsa creates 16% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 17 away

creates per match

Belasitsa
2.47
Hebar 1918
1.76

allows per match

Belasitsa
0.81
Hebar 1918
0.53

finishing

Belasitsa+0.00on par
Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belasitsa ↓

Hebar 1918 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Belasitsa or draw
67%
Belasitsa or Hebar 1918
75%
Draw or Hebar 1918
58%

Winning margin

Belasitsa wins by 2+
21%
Hebar 1918 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Belasitsa 1+ goals
78%
Belasitsa 2+ goals
44%
Belasitsa 3+ goals
19%
Hebar 1918 1+ goals
72%
Hebar 1918 2+ goals
37%
Hebar 1918 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Belasitsa (draw refunded)
56%
Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belasitsa at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.81 · 62 matches

Hebar 1918 away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belasitsa attack 2.47 + Hebar 1918 defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Hebar 1918 attack 1.76 + Belasitsa defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Belasitsa scores more
42%
level
25%
Hebar 1918 scores more
33%

Belasitsa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Belasitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Belasitsa 0–3 Hebar 1918

Hebar 1918 beat Belasitsa 3-0 in Third League - Southwest on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Kolarovo (Kolarovo).