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Heaven Eleven vs Global Pharma — LFA First Division 2020

Heaven Eleven
Heaven Eleven
FT
0 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Global Pharma
Global Pharma
4/16/2025LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 25Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Heaven Eleven51%
×Draw24%
Global Pharma25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heaven Eleven
1.69
Global Pharma
1.11

Heaven Eleven creates 52% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 26 away

creates per match

Heaven Eleven
1.72
Global Pharma
0.92

allows per match

Heaven Eleven
1.31
Global Pharma
1.65

finishing

Heaven Eleven+0.00on par
Global Pharma+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heaven Eleven ↓

Global Pharma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Heaven Eleven or draw
75%
Heaven Eleven or Global Pharma
76%
Draw or Global Pharma
49%

Winning margin

Heaven Eleven wins by 2+
27%
Global Pharma wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Heaven Eleven 1+ goals
82%
Heaven Eleven 2+ goals
50%
Heaven Eleven 3+ goals
24%
Global Pharma 1+ goals
67%
Global Pharma 2+ goals
30%
Global Pharma 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)
67%
Global Pharma (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heaven Eleven at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

Global Pharma away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heaven Eleven attack 1.72 + Global Pharma defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.69

Global Pharma attack 0.92 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Heaven Eleven scores more
51%
level
24%
Global Pharma scores more
25%

Heaven Eleven at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Heaven Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Heaven Eleven 0–1 Global Pharma

Global Pharma beat Heaven Eleven 1-0 in LFA First Division on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch in Monrovia.