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Global Pharma vs Heaven Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

Global Pharma
Global Pharma
FT
0 – 3
Heaven Eleven
Heaven Eleven
11/30/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 12D. Tweh Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Global Pharma38%
×Draw24%
Heaven Eleven37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Global Pharma
1.52
Heaven Eleven
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 60 away

creates per match

Global Pharma
1.54
Heaven Eleven
1.55

allows per match

Global Pharma
1.46
Heaven Eleven
1.50

finishing

Global Pharma+0.00on par
Heaven Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Global Pharma ↓

Heaven Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Global Pharma or draw
63%
Global Pharma or Heaven Eleven
76%
Draw or Heaven Eleven
62%

Winning margin

Global Pharma wins by 2+
18%
Heaven Eleven wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Global Pharma 1+ goals
78%
Global Pharma 2+ goals
45%
Global Pharma 3+ goals
20%
Heaven Eleven 1+ goals
78%
Heaven Eleven 2+ goals
44%
Heaven Eleven 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Global Pharma (draw refunded)
51%
Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Global Pharma at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

Heaven Eleven away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Global Pharma attack 1.54 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Heaven Eleven attack 1.55 + Global Pharma defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Global Pharma scores more
38%
level
24%
Heaven Eleven scores more
37%

Global Pharma at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Global Pharma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Global Pharma vs Heaven Eleven

Heaven Eleven beat Global Pharma 3-0 in LFA First Division on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at D. Tweh Field in Monrovia.