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Heaven Eleven vs Downtown — LFA First Division 2020

Heaven Eleven
Heaven Eleven
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Downtown
Downtown
1/25/2026LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Heaven Eleven48%
×Draw23%
Downtown29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heaven Eleven
1.82
Downtown
1.37

Heaven Eleven creates 33% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 14 away

creates per match

Heaven Eleven
1.72
Downtown
1.43

allows per match

Heaven Eleven
1.31
Downtown
1.93

finishing

Heaven Eleven+0.00on par
Downtown+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heaven Eleven ↓

Downtown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Heaven Eleven or draw
71%
Heaven Eleven or Downtown
77%
Draw or Downtown
52%

Winning margin

Heaven Eleven wins by 2+
26%
Downtown wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Heaven Eleven 1+ goals
84%
Heaven Eleven 2+ goals
54%
Heaven Eleven 3+ goals
27%
Downtown 1+ goals
75%
Downtown 2+ goals
40%
Downtown 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)
62%
Downtown (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heaven Eleven at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

Downtown away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heaven Eleven attack 1.72 + Downtown defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.82

Downtown attack 1.43 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Heaven Eleven scores more
48%
level
23%
Downtown scores more
29%

Heaven Eleven at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Heaven Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Heaven Eleven 2–2 Downtown

Heaven Eleven and Downtown drew 2-2 in LFA First Division on January 25, 2026.