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Downtown vs Heaven Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

Downtown
Downtown
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Heaven Eleven
Heaven Eleven
11/9/2025LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Downtown33%
×Draw25%
Heaven Eleven41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Downtown
1.29
Heaven Eleven
1.46

Heaven Eleven creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 60 away

creates per match

Downtown
1.08
Heaven Eleven
1.55

allows per match

Downtown
1.38
Heaven Eleven
1.50

finishing

Downtown+0.00on par
Heaven Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Downtown ↓

Heaven Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Downtown or draw
59%
Downtown or Heaven Eleven
75%
Draw or Heaven Eleven
67%

Winning margin

Downtown wins by 2+
15%
Heaven Eleven wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Downtown 1+ goals
72%
Downtown 2+ goals
37%
Downtown 3+ goals
14%
Heaven Eleven 1+ goals
77%
Heaven Eleven 2+ goals
43%
Heaven Eleven 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Downtown (draw refunded)
45%
Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Downtown at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Heaven Eleven away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Downtown attack 1.08 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Heaven Eleven attack 1.55 + Downtown defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Downtown scores more
33%
level
25%
Heaven Eleven scores more
41%

Heaven Eleven at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Heaven Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Downtown 1–2 Heaven Eleven

Heaven Eleven beat Downtown 2-1 in LFA First Division on November 9, 2025.