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Hearts of Oak vs Elmina Sharks — Premier League 2019

Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
S. Inkoom 2'
M. Asamoah 28'
4/17/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Hearts of Oak59%
×Draw26%
Elmina Sharks15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hearts of Oak
1.50
Elmina Sharks
0.62

Hearts of Oak creates 142% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 41 away

creates per match

Hearts of Oak
1.24
Elmina Sharks
0.59

allows per match

Hearts of Oak
0.65
Elmina Sharks
1.76

finishing

Hearts of Oak+0.00on par
Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hearts of Oak ↓

Elmina Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hearts of Oak or draw
85%
Hearts of Oak or Elmina Sharks
74%
Draw or Elmina Sharks
41%

Winning margin

Hearts of Oak wins by 2+
31%
Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hearts of Oak 1+ goals
78%
Hearts of Oak 2+ goals
44%
Hearts of Oak 3+ goals
19%
Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
46%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
13%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)
79%
Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hearts of Oak at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.65 · 110 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.76 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hearts of Oak attack 1.24 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.50

Elmina Sharks attack 0.59 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hearts of Oak scores more
59%
level
26%
Elmina Sharks scores more
15%

Hearts of Oak at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hearts of Oak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
S. Inkoom
18'
28'
M. Asamoah
78'
S. Inkoom

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Hearts of Oak 1–1 Elmina Sharks

Hearts of Oak and Elmina Sharks drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 17, 2022.

Goals: S. Inkoom (2'), M. Asamoah (28').

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.