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Elmina Sharks vs Hearts of Oak — Premier League 2019

Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak
G. Awako 72'
12/15/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Elmina Sharks39%
×Draw31%
Hearts of Oak30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elmina Sharks
1.06
Hearts of Oak
0.89

Elmina Sharks creates 19% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 108 away

creates per match

Elmina Sharks
1.26
Hearts of Oak
0.72

allows per match

Elmina Sharks
1.05
Hearts of Oak
0.86

finishing

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par
Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elmina Sharks ↓

Hearts of Oak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Elmina Sharks or draw
70%
Elmina Sharks or Hearts of Oak
69%
Draw or Hearts of Oak
61%

Winning margin

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
15%
Hearts of Oak wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
65%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
29%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
9%
Hearts of Oak 1+ goals
59%
Hearts of Oak 2+ goals
22%
Hearts of Oak 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
57%
Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elmina Sharks at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

Hearts of Oak away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.86 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elmina Sharks attack 1.26 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.06

Hearts of Oak attack 0.72 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Elmina Sharks scores more
39%
level
31%
Hearts of Oak scores more
30%

Elmina Sharks at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Elmina Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
I. Suraj
37'
M. Alhaji← M. Alhaji
44'
I. Salifu
64'
I. Mensah← K. Kordzi
64'
G. Awako← G. Awako
68'
D. Nii Adjei← D. Nii Adjei
72'
G. Awako
76'
I. Suraj
76'
I. Suraj
83'
I. Salifu
83'
I. Salifu
87'
C. Amankwah← C. Amankwah
87'
K. Obeng Junior← K. Obeng Junior
88'
M. Alhaji← C. Obeng
88'
R. Kyeremeh← R. Kyeremeh
88'
T. Mensah← T. Mensah
90+1'
D. Nii Adjei
90+5'
F. Ansah← E. Nettey

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Elmina Sharks 0–1 Hearts of Oak

Hearts of Oak beat Elmina Sharks 1-0 in Premier League on December 15, 2021.

Goals: G. Awako (72').

The match was played at Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium in Elmina.