Hearts of Oak 0–1 Bibiani Gold Stars

Hearts of Oak

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bibiani Gold Stars

4/7/2024

Premier League · Round 24Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Hearts of Oak54%

×Draw28%

Bibiani Gold Stars18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hearts of OakExpected goals in this matchBibiani Gold Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.68

Hearts of Oak

1.38

Bibiani Gold Stars

0.68

Hearts of Oak creates 103% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 84 away

1.25

creates per match

0.70

0.66

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Hearts of Oak

1.25

Bibiani Gold Stars

0.70

allows per match

Hearts of Oak

0.66

Bibiani Gold Stars

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hearts of Oak ↓

Bibiani Gold Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Hearts of Oak or draw

82%

Hearts of Oak or Bibiani Gold Stars

72%

Draw or Bibiani Gold Stars

46%

Winning margin

Hearts of Oak wins by 2+

26%

Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Hearts of Oak 1+ goals

75%

Hearts of Oak 2+ goals

40%

Hearts of Oak 3+ goals

16%

Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals

49%

Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals

15%

Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)

74%

Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hearts of Oak at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.66 · 109 matches

Bibiani Gold Stars away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hearts of Oak attack 1.25 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 0.70 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hearts of Oak scores more

54%

level

28%

Bibiani Gold Stars scores more

18%

Hearts of Oak at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hearts of Oak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff