Hearts of Oak 2–2 Ashanti Gold: Result & Stats

Hearts of Oak

FT

2 – 2

Ashanti Gold

K. Obeng Junior 80', 32'

H. Kwofie 90+1', 55'

11/24/2020

Premier League · Round 2Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Hearts of Oak50%

×Draw29%

Ashanti Gold21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hearts of OakExpected goals in this matchAshanti Gold

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.72

Hearts of Oak

1.29

Ashanti Gold

0.72

Hearts of Oak creates 79% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 43 away

1.24

creates per match

0.79

0.65

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Hearts of Oak

1.24

Ashanti Gold

0.79

allows per match

Hearts of Oak

0.65

Ashanti Gold

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hearts of Oak ↓

Ashanti Gold →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Hearts of Oak or draw

79%

Hearts of Oak or Ashanti Gold

71%

Draw or Ashanti Gold

50%

Winning margin

Hearts of Oak wins by 2+

23%

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Hearts of Oak 1+ goals

72%

Hearts of Oak 2+ goals

37%

Hearts of Oak 3+ goals

14%

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals

51%

Ashanti Gold 2+ goals

16%

Ashanti Gold 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)

71%

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hearts of Oak at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.65 · 110 matches

Ashanti Gold away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.35 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hearts of Oak attack 1.24 + Ashanti Gold defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Ashanti Gold attack 0.79 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hearts of Oak scores more

50%

level

29%

Ashanti Gold scores more

21%

Hearts of Oak at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hearts of Oak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

O. R. Hokemba

29'

L. Sumaila

32'

K. Obeng Junior

55'

H. Kwofie

65'

F. Ansah← M. Sarpong

71'

S. Lawali← S. Lawali

75'

A. Addai← M. Agyekum

80'

K. Obeng Junior

82'

83'

V. Aidoo← V. Aidoo

88'

R. Osei

88'

A. K. Nkrumah← A. K. Nkrumah

90+1'

H. Kwofie

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff