Ashanti Gold vs Hearts of Oak — Premier League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 41+ matches
Ashanti Gold52%
Hearts of Oak19%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ashanti Gold creates 96% more chances
Season form · 41 home / 108 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under67
- Over33
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No64
- Yes36
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ashanti Gold ↓
Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ashanti Gold at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.63 · 41 matches
Hearts of Oak away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.86 · 108 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ashanti Gold attack 1.80 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.33
Hearts of Oak attack 0.72 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.68
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Ashanti Gold at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Ashanti Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Medeama
Bibiani Gold StarsHearts of Oak
Dreams
Aduana Stars
Samartex
Karela
Vision
Berekum Chelsea
Asante Kotoko
Swedru All Blacks
Young Apostles
Nations
Bechem United
Basake Holy Stars
Heart of Lions
Hohoe United
Eleven WondersIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ashanti Gold host Hearts of Oak on Sunday, 21 November 2021 at 15:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Ashanti Gold vs Hearts of Oak
Ashanti Gold beat Hearts of Oak 2-0 in Premier League on November 21, 2021.
Goals: Y. Annor (52'), A. Salam (90+1').
The match was played at Len Clay Stadium in Obuasi.