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Heartland vs Adamawa United — NPFL 2019

Heartland
Heartland
FT
5 – 0
Adamawa United
Adamawa United
C. Obioma 90' (pen), 62', 11'
A. Thompson 33'
E. Dufegha 5'
2/16/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 20Okigwe Township Stadium (Okigwe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Heartland71%
×Draw21%
Adamawa United9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heartland
1.85
Adamawa United
0.48

Heartland creates 285% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 31 away

creates per match

Heartland
1.36
Adamawa United
0.23

allows per match

Heartland
0.74
Adamawa United
2.35

finishing

Heartland+0.00on par
Adamawa United+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heartland ↓

Adamawa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Heartland or draw
91%
Heartland or Adamawa United
79%
Draw or Adamawa United
29%

Winning margin

Heartland wins by 2+
43%
Adamawa United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Heartland 1+ goals
84%
Heartland 2+ goals
55%
Heartland 3+ goals
28%
Adamawa United 1+ goals
38%
Adamawa United 2+ goals
8%
Adamawa United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Heartland (draw refunded)
89%
Adamawa United (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heartland at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.74 · 100 matches

Adamawa United away — creates 0.23, concedes 2.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heartland attack 1.36 + Adamawa United defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.85

Adamawa United attack 0.23 + Heartland defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Heartland scores more
71%
level
21%
Adamawa United scores more
9%

Heartland at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Heartland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
E. Dufegha
11'
C. Obioma
20'
33'
A. Thompson
53'
62'
C. Obioma
90'
C. ObiomaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heartland vs Adamawa United

Heartland beat Adamawa United 5-0 in NPFL on February 16, 2020.

Goals: E. Dufegha (5'), C. Obioma (11', 62', 90' pen), A. Thompson (33').

The match was played at Okigwe Township Stadium (Okigwe).