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Adamawa United vs Heartland — NPFL 2019

Adamawa United
Adamawa United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Heartland
Heartland
K. Maduforo 80'
5/9/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 20Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Adamawa United48%
×Draw30%
Heartland22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adamawa United
1.23
Heartland
0.73

Adamawa United creates 68% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 101 away

creates per match

Adamawa United
0.94
Heartland
0.54

allows per match

Adamawa United
0.91
Heartland
1.52

finishing

Adamawa United+0.00on par
Heartland+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adamawa United ↓

Heartland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Adamawa United or draw
78%
Adamawa United or Heartland
70%
Draw or Heartland
52%

Winning margin

Adamawa United wins by 2+
22%
Heartland wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Adamawa United 1+ goals
71%
Adamawa United 2+ goals
35%
Adamawa United 3+ goals
13%
Heartland 1+ goals
52%
Heartland 2+ goals
17%
Heartland 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Adamawa United (draw refunded)
69%
Heartland (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adamawa United at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Heartland away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.52 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adamawa United attack 0.94 + Heartland defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.23

Heartland attack 0.54 + Adamawa United defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Adamawa United scores more
48%
level
30%
Heartland scores more
22%

Adamawa United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Adamawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'
K. Maduforo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Adamawa United 0–1 Heartland

Heartland beat Adamawa United 1-0 in NPFL on May 9, 2021.

Goals: K. Maduforo (80').

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium in Gombe.