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Heart of Lions vs Bofoakwe Tano — Premier League 2019

Heart of Lions
Heart of Lions
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bofoakwe Tano
Bofoakwe Tano
10/8/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Heart of Lions55%
×Draw29%
Bofoakwe Tano15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heart of Lions
1.29
Bofoakwe Tano
0.53

Heart of Lions creates 143% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

creates per match

Heart of Lions
1.30
Bofoakwe Tano
0.59

allows per match

Heart of Lions
0.46
Bofoakwe Tano
1.29

finishing

Heart of Lions+0.00on par
Bofoakwe Tano+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heart of Lions ↓

Bofoakwe Tano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Heart of Lions or draw
85%
Heart of Lions or Bofoakwe Tano
71%
Draw or Bofoakwe Tano
45%

Winning margin

Heart of Lions wins by 2+
26%
Bofoakwe Tano wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Heart of Lions 1+ goals
72%
Heart of Lions 2+ goals
37%
Heart of Lions 3+ goals
14%
Bofoakwe Tano 1+ goals
41%
Bofoakwe Tano 2+ goals
10%
Bofoakwe Tano 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Heart of Lions (draw refunded)
78%
Bofoakwe Tano (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heart of Lions at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.46 · 50 matches

Bofoakwe Tano away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heart of Lions attack 1.30 + Bofoakwe Tano defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bofoakwe Tano attack 0.59 + Heart of Lions defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Heart of Lions scores more
55%
level
29%
Bofoakwe Tano scores more
15%

Heart of Lions at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Heart of Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
K. Oppong
51'
E. Addai
63'
Y. Mumuni← Y. Mumuni
75'
D. Blessing← D. Blessing
75'
G. Z. Ado← G. Z. Ado
87'
B. York← B. York

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Heart of Lions 0 – 0 Bofoakwe Tano

Heart of Lions and Bofoakwe Tano drew 0-0 in Premier League on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex in Sogakope.