Bofoakwe Tano vs Heart of Lions — Premier League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Bofoakwe Tano37%
Heart of Lions29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Bofoakwe Tano creates 19% more chances
Season form · 17 home / 51 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under74
- Over26
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No66
- Yes34
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bofoakwe Tano ↓
Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bofoakwe Tano at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches
Heart of Lions away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bofoakwe Tano attack 0.65 + Heart of Lions defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.95
Heart of Lions attack 0.78 + Bofoakwe Tano defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.80
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Bofoakwe Tano at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Bofoakwe Tano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
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WAFA
Bechem United
Hearts of Oak
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Dreams
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Karela
King FaisalIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Bofoakwe Tano host Heart of Lions on Thursday, 14 March 2024 at 15:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Bofoakwe Tano vs Heart of Lions
Bofoakwe Tano beat Heart of Lions 1-0 in Premier League on March 14, 2024.
The match was played at Coronation Park in Sunyani.