Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

HB Torshavn vs KI Klaksvik — Meistaradeildin 2019

HB Torshavn
HB Torshavn
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
KI Klaksvik
KI Klaksvik
9/15/2023MeistaradeildinMeistaradeildin · Round 21Gundadalur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

HB Torshavn38%
×Draw22%
KI Klaksvik40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HB Torshavn
1.73
KI Klaksvik
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 104 away

creates per match

HB Torshavn
2.76
KI Klaksvik
2.64

allows per match

HB Torshavn
0.93
KI Klaksvik
0.70

finishing

HB Torshavn+0.00on par
KI Klaksvik+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HB Torshavn ↓

KI Klaksvik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

HB Torshavn or draw
60%
HB Torshavn or KI Klaksvik
78%
Draw or KI Klaksvik
62%

Winning margin

HB Torshavn wins by 2+
19%
KI Klaksvik wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

HB Torshavn 1+ goals
82%
HB Torshavn 2+ goals
52%
HB Torshavn 3+ goals
25%
KI Klaksvik 1+ goals
83%
KI Klaksvik 2+ goals
53%
KI Klaksvik 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

HB Torshavn (draw refunded)
48%
KI Klaksvik (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HB Torshavn at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.93 · 103 matches

KI Klaksvik away — creates 2.64, concedes 0.70 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HB Torshavn attack 2.76 + KI Klaksvik defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.73

KI Klaksvik attack 2.64 + HB Torshavn defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

HB Torshavn scores more
38%
level
22%
KI Klaksvik scores more
40%

KI Klaksvik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KI Klaksvik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meistaradeildin: HB Torshavn 1–2 KI Klaksvik

KI Klaksvik beat HB Torshavn 2-1 in Meistaradeildin on September 15, 2023.

The match was played at Gundadalur in Tórshavn, Streymoy.