HB Torshavn 4–0 B71: Result & Stats

HB Torshavn

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

B71

D. Í Soylu 80'

S. Samuelsen 68', 55', 50'

4/22/2019

Løgmanssteypid · Quarter-finalsGundadalur (Tórshavn, Streymoy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

HB Torshavn83%

×Draw11%

B716%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HB TorshavnExpected goals in this matchB71

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.99

0.68

HB Torshavn

2.99

B71

0.68

HB Torshavn creates 340% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

2.64

creates per match

0.50

0.86

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

HB Torshavn

2.64

B71

0.50

allows per match

HB Torshavn

0.86

B71

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HB Torshavn+0.00on par

B71+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HB Torshavn ↓

B71 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

HB Torshavn or draw

94%

HB Torshavn or B71

89%

Draw or B71

17%

Winning margin

HB Torshavn wins by 2+

64%

B71 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

HB Torshavn 1+ goals

95%

HB Torshavn 2+ goals

79%

HB Torshavn 3+ goals

56%

B71 1+ goals

49%

B71 2+ goals

15%

B71 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

HB Torshavn (draw refunded)

94%

B71 (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HB Torshavn at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

B71 away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HB Torshavn attack 2.64 + B71 defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.99

B71 attack 0.50 + HB Torshavn defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

HB Torshavn scores more

83%

level

11%

B71 scores more

6%

HB Torshavn at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "HB Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

B. Bjarnason← K. Hentze

50'

S. Samuelsen

55'

H. Hentze← T. Mohammed

55'

S. Samuelsen

66'

B. Winther← Klayver

68'

S. Samuelsen

72'

A. Breimyr← T. Jensen

76'

P. Petersen← A. Justinussen

79'

S. Sólheim← J. Nolsøe

80'

D. Í Soylu

HB

B71

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: H. Gudjonsson

72'▲A. Breimyr←▼T. Jensen

76'▲P. Petersen←▼A. Justinussen

79'▲S. Sólheim←▼J. Nolsøe

HB Torshavn substitutes

BreimyrPetersenSólheimBrimnesMørkDavidsenKlein

Manager: Símun Hansen

46'▲B. Bjarnason←▼K. Hentze

55'▲H. Hentze←▼T. Mohammed

66'▲B. Winther←▼Klayver

B71 substitutes

BjarnasonHentzeWintherJespersenNowickiJacobsenNicolajsen