B71 0–5 HB Torshavn: Result & Stats

B71

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

HB Torshavn

H. Askham 77'

M. Przybylski 73'

J. Thomsen 70', 65'

S. Radosavljevic 18'

9/22/2021

Løgmanssteypid · Quarter-finalsinni í Dal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

B7115%

×Draw15%

HB Torshavn70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

B71Expected goals in this matchHB Torshavn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

3.06

B71

1.39

HB Torshavn

3.06

HB Torshavn creates 120% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.60

creates per match

2.33

3.80

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

B71

1.60

HB Torshavn

2.33

allows per match

B71

3.80

HB Torshavn

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

B71+0.00on par

HB Torshavn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B71 ↓

HB Torshavn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

B71 or draw

30%

B71 or HB Torshavn

85%

Draw or HB Torshavn

85%

Winning margin

B71 wins by 2+

6%

HB Torshavn wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

B71 1+ goals

75%

B71 2+ goals

40%

B71 3+ goals

16%

HB Torshavn 1+ goals

95%

HB Torshavn 2+ goals

80%

HB Torshavn 3+ goals

57%

Draw no bet

B71 (draw refunded)

18%

HB Torshavn (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B71 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

HB Torshavn away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B71 attack 1.60 + HB Torshavn defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

HB Torshavn attack 2.33 + B71 defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 3.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

B71 scores more

15%

level

15%

HB Torshavn scores more

70%

HB Torshavn at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "HB Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

S. Radosavljevic

46'

B. Wardum← H. Mohr

65'

J. Thomsen

67'

A. Justinussen← Á. Samuelsen

70'

J. Thomsen

71'

H. Hentze← J. Vazquez

73'

M. Przybylski

75'

L. Giessing← S. Radosavljevic

77'

H. Askham

78'

B. Winther← T. Mohammed

78'

B. Petersen← J. Warner

B71

HB

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Goffe

71'▲H. Hentze←▼J. Vazquez

78'▲B. Winther←▼T. Mohammed

78'▲B. Petersen←▼J. Warner

B71 substitutes

HentzeWintherPetersenHentzeKjærboNicolajsen

Manager: K. Schindler

46'▲B. Wardum←▼H. Mohr

67'▲A. Justinussen←▼Á. Samuelsen

75'▲L. Giessing←▼S. Radosavljevic

HB Torshavn substitutes

WardumJustinussenGiessingJohansenDahlJoensenGestsson