HB Koge 1–0 FC Helsingor: Result & Stats

HB Koge

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Helsingor

10/1/2023

1. Division · Round 11Capelli Sport Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

HB Koge39%

×Draw24%

FC Helsingor36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HB KogeExpected goals in this matchFC Helsingor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.45

HB Koge

1.52

FC Helsingor

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 129 home / 80 away

1.40

creates per match

1.40

1.50

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

HB Koge

1.40

FC Helsingor

1.40

allows per match

HB Koge

1.50

FC Helsingor

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HB Koge+0.00on par

FC Helsingor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HB Koge ↓

FC Helsingor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

HB Koge or draw

64%

HB Koge or FC Helsingor

76%

Draw or FC Helsingor

61%

Winning margin

HB Koge wins by 2+

19%

FC Helsingor wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

HB Koge 1+ goals

78%

HB Koge 2+ goals

45%

HB Koge 3+ goals

20%

FC Helsingor 1+ goals

77%

FC Helsingor 2+ goals

42%

FC Helsingor 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

HB Koge (draw refunded)

52%

FC Helsingor (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HB Koge at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.50 · 129 matches

FC Helsingor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.65 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HB Koge attack 1.40 + FC Helsingor defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.52

FC Helsingor attack 1.40 + HB Koge defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

HB Koge scores more

39%

level

24%

FC Helsingor scores more

36%

HB Koge at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "HB Koge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff