FC Helsingor 1–4 HB Koge: Result & Stats

FC Helsingor

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

HB Koge

2/17/2023

1. Division · Round 18Helsingør Ny Stadion OPV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

FC Helsingor43%

×Draw25%

HB Koge33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC HelsingorExpected goals in this matchHB Koge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.33

FC Helsingor

1.56

HB Koge

1.33

FC Helsingor creates 17% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 129 away

1.44

creates per match

1.22

1.44

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

FC Helsingor

1.44

HB Koge

1.22

allows per match

FC Helsingor

1.44

HB Koge

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Helsingor+0.00on par

HB Koge+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Helsingor ↓

HB Koge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Helsingor or draw

67%

FC Helsingor or HB Koge

75%

Draw or HB Koge

57%

Winning margin

FC Helsingor wins by 2+

21%

HB Koge wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FC Helsingor 1+ goals

79%

FC Helsingor 2+ goals

46%

FC Helsingor 3+ goals

21%

HB Koge 1+ goals

74%

HB Koge 2+ goals

38%

HB Koge 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Helsingor (draw refunded)

57%

HB Koge (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Helsingor at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

HB Koge away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.68 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Helsingor attack 1.44 + HB Koge defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.56

HB Koge attack 1.22 + FC Helsingor defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Helsingor scores more

43%

level

25%

HB Koge scores more

33%

FC Helsingor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Helsingor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff