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Hay Al Wadi vs Haidob En Nahud — Sudani Premier League 2025

Hay Al Wadi
Hay Al Wadi
FT
1 – 0
Haidob En Nahud
Haidob En Nahud
12/28/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 17Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hay Al Wadi33%
×Draw31%
Haidob En Nahud36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hay Al Wadi
0.98
Haidob En Nahud
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hay Al Wadi
1.04
Haidob En Nahud
0.85

allows per match

Hay Al Wadi
1.23
Haidob En Nahud
0.92

finishing

Hay Al Wadi+0.00on par
Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hay Al Wadi ↓

Haidob En Nahud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Hay Al Wadi or draw
64%
Hay Al Wadi or Haidob En Nahud
69%
Draw or Haidob En Nahud
67%

Winning margin

Hay Al Wadi wins by 2+
12%
Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hay Al Wadi 1+ goals
62%
Hay Al Wadi 2+ goals
26%
Hay Al Wadi 3+ goals
8%
Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals
65%
Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals
28%
Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hay Al Wadi (draw refunded)
48%
Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hay Al Wadi at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

Haidob En Nahud away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hay Al Wadi attack 1.04 + Haidob En Nahud defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.98

Haidob En Nahud attack 0.85 + Hay Al Wadi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Hay Al Wadi scores more
33%
level
31%
Haidob En Nahud scores more
36%

Haidob En Nahud at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Haidob En Nahud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hay Al Wadi vs Haidob En Nahud

Hay Al Wadi beat Haidob En Nahud 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on December 28, 2022.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.