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Haidob En Nahud vs Hay Al Wadi — Sudani Premier League 2025

Haidob En Nahud
Haidob En Nahud
FT
1 – 1
Hay Al Wadi
Hay Al Wadi
1/29/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Haidob En Nahud43%
×Draw27%
Hay Al Wadi30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haidob En Nahud
1.33
Hay Al Wadi
1.07

Haidob En Nahud creates 24% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 17 away

creates per match

Haidob En Nahud
1.30
Hay Al Wadi
0.94

allows per match

Haidob En Nahud
1.20
Hay Al Wadi
1.35

finishing

Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par
Hay Al Wadi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haidob En Nahud ↓

Hay Al Wadi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Haidob En Nahud or draw
70%
Haidob En Nahud or Hay Al Wadi
73%
Draw or Hay Al Wadi
57%

Winning margin

Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+
20%
Hay Al Wadi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals
74%
Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals
38%
Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals
15%
Hay Al Wadi 1+ goals
66%
Hay Al Wadi 2+ goals
29%
Hay Al Wadi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)
59%
Hay Al Wadi (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haidob En Nahud at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Hay Al Wadi away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haidob En Nahud attack 1.30 + Hay Al Wadi defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hay Al Wadi attack 0.94 + Haidob En Nahud defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Haidob En Nahud scores more
43%
level
27%
Hay Al Wadi scores more
30%

Haidob En Nahud at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Haidob En Nahud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haidob En Nahud vs Hay Al Wadi

Haidob En Nahud and Hay Al Wadi drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on January 29, 2026.