Hay Al Wadi 0–2 Al Merreikh: Result & Stats

Hay Al Wadi

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Al Merreikh

1/11/2023

Sudani Premier League · Round 4Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hay Al Wadi28%

×Draw25%

Al Merreikh48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hay Al WadiExpected goals in this matchAl Merreikh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.61

Hay Al Wadi

1.17

Al Merreikh

1.61

Al Merreikh creates 38% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 7 away

1.04

creates per match

2.00

1.23

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Hay Al Wadi

1.04

Al Merreikh

2.00

allows per match

Hay Al Wadi

1.23

Al Merreikh

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hay Al Wadi+0.00on par

Al Merreikh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hay Al Wadi ↓

Al Merreikh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hay Al Wadi or draw

52%

Hay Al Wadi or Al Merreikh

75%

Draw or Al Merreikh

72%

Winning margin

Hay Al Wadi wins by 2+

11%

Al Merreikh wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Hay Al Wadi 1+ goals

69%

Hay Al Wadi 2+ goals

33%

Hay Al Wadi 3+ goals

11%

Al Merreikh 1+ goals

80%

Al Merreikh 2+ goals

48%

Al Merreikh 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Hay Al Wadi (draw refunded)

37%

Al Merreikh (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hay Al Wadi at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

Al Merreikh away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hay Al Wadi attack 1.04 + Al Merreikh defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Al Merreikh attack 2.00 + Hay Al Wadi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hay Al Wadi scores more

28%

level

25%

Al Merreikh scores more

48%

Al Merreikh at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff