Al Merreikh vs Hay Al Wadi — Sudani Premier League 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Al Merreikh46%
Hay Al Wadi21%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Al Merreikh creates 70% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 18 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under76
- Over24
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No69
- Yes31
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Al Merreikh ↓
Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Al Merreikh at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches
Hay Al Wadi away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Al Merreikh attack 0.75 + Hay Al Wadi defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.07
Hay Al Wadi attack 1.00 + Al Merreikh defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.63
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Al Merreikh at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Al Ahli Wad Medani
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
Al-Merreikh II
Al Hilal Port SudanHay Al Wadi
Umm Mughad
Hilal El-Fasher
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
Alamal Atbara
Haidob En Nahud
Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Manaqil
Al Shorta
Al-Mergheni
Al Fallah
Al Saham Ad DamerAl Merreikh
Al Fajr
Al Merreikh El Obeid
Al Taqadom
Al Hilal Karima
Al Rabta Kosti
Al-Ahly Merowe
Al Ahli Khartoum
Merreikh Kosti
KoberIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Al Merreikh host Hay Al Wadi on Sunday, 13 July 2025 at 14:00. The match is part of the Sudani Premier League 2025/2026 season.
Sudani Premier League: Al Merreikh 0–0 Hay Al Wadi
Al Merreikh and Hay Al Wadi drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on July 13, 2025.
The match was played at Barber Stadium in Berber.