Hay Al Wadi vs Al-Ahly Merowe — Sudani Premier League 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
Hay Al Wadi32%
Al-Ahly Merowe35%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 23 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under73
- Over27
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No65
- Yes35
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hay Al Wadi ↓
Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hay Al Wadi at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches
Al-Ahly Merowe away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hay Al Wadi attack 1.00 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88
Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.63 + Hay Al Wadi defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.93
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 35%?"
Al-Ahly Merowe at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 35% does not mean "Al-Ahly Merowe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Al Ahli Wad Medani
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
Al-Merreikh II
Al Hilal Port SudanHay Al Wadi
Umm Mughad
Hilal El-Fasher
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
Alamal Atbara
Haidob En Nahud
Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Manaqil
Al Shorta
Al-Mergheni
Al Fallah
Al Saham Ad Damer
Al Merreikh
Al Fajr
Al Merreikh El Obeid
Al Taqadom
Al Hilal Karima
Al Rabta KostiAl-Ahly Merowe
Al Ahli Khartoum
Merreikh Kosti
KoberIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hay Al Wadi host Al-Ahly Merowe on Thursday, 6 February 2025 at 13:00. The match is part of the Sudani Premier League 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Hay Al Wadi vs Al-Ahly Merowe
Hay Al Wadi beat Al-Ahly Merowe 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 6, 2025.
The match was played at Karima Sports City Stadium in Karima.