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Al-Ahly Merowe vs Hay Al Wadi — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hay Al Wadi
Hay Al Wadi
1/10/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 1Dongola Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al-Ahly Merowe35%
×Draw31%
Hay Al Wadi34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahly Merowe
0.98
Hay Al Wadi
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al-Ahly Merowe
0.64
Hay Al Wadi
0.95

allows per match

Al-Ahly Merowe
1.00
Hay Al Wadi
1.32

finishing

Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par
Hay Al Wadi+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahly Merowe ↓

Hay Al Wadi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al-Ahly Merowe or draw
66%
Al-Ahly Merowe or Hay Al Wadi
69%
Draw or Hay Al Wadi
65%

Winning margin

Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
13%
Hay Al Wadi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
62%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
26%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
8%
Hay Al Wadi 1+ goals
62%
Hay Al Wadi 2+ goals
25%
Hay Al Wadi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
50%
Hay Al Wadi (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahly Merowe at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Hay Al Wadi away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.64 + Hay Al Wadi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.98

Hay Al Wadi attack 0.95 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
35%
level
31%
Hay Al Wadi scores more
34%

Al-Ahly Merowe at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Al-Ahly Merowe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ahly Merowe vs Hay Al Wadi

Al-Ahly Merowe and Hay Al Wadi drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on January 10, 2025.

The match was played at Dongola Stadium in Dongola.