Hay Al Wadi 4–2 Al-Ahly Merowe: Result & Stats

Hay Al Wadi

FT

4 – 2

Al-Ahly Merowe

2/11/2022

Sudani Premier League · Round 2Stade Al-Amal Atbara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Hay Al Wadi45%

×Draw30%

Al-Ahly Merowe24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hay Al WadiExpected goals in this matchAl-Ahly Merowe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.79

Hay Al Wadi

1.19

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.79

Hay Al Wadi creates 51% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 74 away

1.02

creates per match

0.70

0.89

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Hay Al Wadi

1.02

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.70

allows per match

Hay Al Wadi

0.89

Al-Ahly Merowe

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hay Al Wadi+0.00on par

Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hay Al Wadi ↓

Al-Ahly Merowe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Hay Al Wadi or draw

76%

Hay Al Wadi or Al-Ahly Merowe

70%

Draw or Al-Ahly Merowe

55%

Winning margin

Hay Al Wadi wins by 2+

20%

Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hay Al Wadi 1+ goals

70%

Hay Al Wadi 2+ goals

33%

Hay Al Wadi 3+ goals

12%

Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals

55%

Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals

19%

Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Hay Al Wadi (draw refunded)

65%

Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hay Al Wadi at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.89 · 85 matches

Al-Ahly Merowe away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.35 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hay Al Wadi attack 1.02 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.70 + Hay Al Wadi defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hay Al Wadi scores more

45%

level

30%

Al-Ahly Merowe scores more

24%

Hay Al Wadi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hay Al Wadi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff