Hay Al Arab 1–2 Al-Mergheni: Result & Stats

Hay Al Arab

FT

1 – 2

Al-Mergheni

2/3/2025

Sudani Premier League · Round 6Stade Al-Merghani Kassala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hay Al Arab37%

×Draw29%

Al-Mergheni34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hay Al ArabExpected goals in this matchAl-Mergheni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.09

Hay Al Arab

1.16

Al-Mergheni

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

1.17

creates per match

0.85

1.33

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Hay Al Arab

1.17

Al-Mergheni

0.85

allows per match

Hay Al Arab

1.33

Al-Mergheni

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hay Al Arab+0.00on par

Al-Mergheni+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hay Al Arab ↓

Al-Mergheni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Hay Al Arab or draw

66%

Hay Al Arab or Al-Mergheni

71%

Draw or Al-Mergheni

63%

Winning margin

Hay Al Arab wins by 2+

16%

Al-Mergheni wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hay Al Arab 1+ goals

69%

Hay Al Arab 2+ goals

32%

Hay Al Arab 3+ goals

11%

Al-Mergheni 1+ goals

66%

Al-Mergheni 2+ goals

30%

Al-Mergheni 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hay Al Arab (draw refunded)

52%

Al-Mergheni (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hay Al Arab at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Al-Mergheni away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hay Al Arab attack 1.17 + Al-Mergheni defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.16

Al-Mergheni attack 0.85 + Hay Al Arab defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hay Al Arab scores more

37%

level

29%

Al-Mergheni scores more

34%

Hay Al Arab at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hay Al Arab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff