Al-Mergheni 3–1 Hay Al Arab: Result & Stats

Al-Mergheni

FT

3 – 1

Hay Al Arab

1/11/2025

Sudani Premier League · Round 1Stade Al-Merghani Kassala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al-Mergheni40%

×Draw30%

Hay Al Arab30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-MergheniExpected goals in this matchHay Al Arab

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.96

Al-Mergheni

1.15

Hay Al Arab

0.96

Al-Mergheni creates 20% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

0.92

creates per match

0.75

1.17

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Al-Mergheni

0.92

Hay Al Arab

0.75

allows per match

Al-Mergheni

1.17

Hay Al Arab

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Mergheni+0.00on par

Hay Al Arab+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Mergheni ↓

Hay Al Arab →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al-Mergheni or draw

70%

Al-Mergheni or Hay Al Arab

70%

Draw or Hay Al Arab

60%

Winning margin

Al-Mergheni wins by 2+

17%

Hay Al Arab wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Al-Mergheni 1+ goals

68%

Al-Mergheni 2+ goals

32%

Al-Mergheni 3+ goals

11%

Hay Al Arab 1+ goals

62%

Hay Al Arab 2+ goals

25%

Hay Al Arab 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al-Mergheni (draw refunded)

57%

Hay Al Arab (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Mergheni at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Hay Al Arab away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Mergheni attack 0.92 + Hay Al Arab defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.15

Hay Al Arab attack 0.75 + Al-Mergheni defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al-Mergheni scores more

40%

level

30%

Hay Al Arab scores more

30%

Al-Mergheni at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al-Mergheni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff