Hay Al Arab 1–1 Al Hilal Port Sudan: Result & Stats

Hay Al Arab

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al Hilal Port Sudan

2/14/2025

Sudani Premier League · Round 9Al-Gadarf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hay Al Arab29%

×Draw29%

Al Hilal Port Sudan42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hay Al ArabExpected goals in this matchAl Hilal Port Sudan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.20

Hay Al Arab

0.94

Al Hilal Port Sudan

1.20

Al Hilal Port Sudan creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

1.17

creates per match

1.06

1.33

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Hay Al Arab

1.17

Al Hilal Port Sudan

1.06

allows per match

Hay Al Arab

1.33

Al Hilal Port Sudan

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hay Al Arab+0.00on par

Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hay Al Arab ↓

Al Hilal Port Sudan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Hay Al Arab or draw

58%

Hay Al Arab or Al Hilal Port Sudan

71%

Draw or Al Hilal Port Sudan

71%

Winning margin

Hay Al Arab wins by 2+

10%

Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Hay Al Arab 1+ goals

61%

Hay Al Arab 2+ goals

24%

Hay Al Arab 3+ goals

7%

Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals

70%

Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals

34%

Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hay Al Arab (draw refunded)

41%

Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hay Al Arab at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hay Al Arab attack 1.17 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.94

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.06 + Hay Al Arab defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hay Al Arab scores more

29%

level

29%

Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more

42%

Al Hilal Port Sudan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Hilal Port Sudan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff