Al Hilal Port Sudan 1–1 Hay Al Arab: Result & Stats

Al Hilal Port Sudan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hay Al Arab

1/24/2025

Sudani Premier League · Round 4Stade Al-Merghani Kassala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan47%

×Draw33%

Hay Al Arab20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Hilal Port SudanExpected goals in this matchHay Al Arab

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.60

Al Hilal Port Sudan

1.08

Hay Al Arab

0.60

Al Hilal Port Sudan creates 80% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

1.06

creates per match

0.60

0.61

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan

1.06

Hay Al Arab

0.60

allows per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan

0.61

Hay Al Arab

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par

Hay Al Arab+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Port Sudan ↓

Hay Al Arab →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Al Hilal Port Sudan or draw

80%

Al Hilal Port Sudan or Hay Al Arab

67%

Draw or Hay Al Arab

53%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+

20%

Hay Al Arab wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals

66%

Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals

29%

Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals

10%

Hay Al Arab 1+ goals

45%

Hay Al Arab 2+ goals

12%

Hay Al Arab 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)

70%

Hay Al Arab (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Port Sudan at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

Hay Al Arab away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.06 + Hay Al Arab defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Hay Al Arab attack 0.60 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more

47%

level

33%

Hay Al Arab scores more

20%

Al Hilal Port Sudan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Hilal Port Sudan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff