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Hay Al Arab vs Al Hilal Port Sudan — Sudani Premier League 2019

Hay Al Arab
Hay Al Arab
FT
2 – 2
Al Hilal Port Sudan
Al Hilal Port Sudan
2/3/2021Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 7Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Hay Al Arab35%
×Draw29%
Al Hilal Port Sudan37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hay Al Arab
1.12
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 57 away

creates per match

Hay Al Arab
1.22
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.21

allows per match

Hay Al Arab
1.11
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.02

finishing

Hay Al Arab+0.00on par
Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hay Al Arab ↓

Al Hilal Port Sudan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hay Al Arab or draw
63%
Hay Al Arab or Al Hilal Port Sudan
71%
Draw or Al Hilal Port Sudan
65%

Winning margin

Hay Al Arab wins by 2+
14%
Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hay Al Arab 1+ goals
67%
Hay Al Arab 2+ goals
31%
Hay Al Arab 3+ goals
10%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals
69%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals
32%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hay Al Arab (draw refunded)
49%
Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hay Al Arab at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 72 matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hay Al Arab attack 1.22 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.12

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.21 + Hay Al Arab defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hay Al Arab scores more
35%
level
29%
Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more
37%

Al Hilal Port Sudan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Hilal Port Sudan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hay Al Arab vs Al Hilal Port Sudan

Hay Al Arab and Al Hilal Port Sudan drew 2-2 in Sudani Premier League on February 3, 2021.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.