Havlíčkův Brod vs Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

Havlíčkův Brod

CANC

15:00

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

5/16/2021

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 20Stadion Na Losích

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Havlíčkův Brod56%

×Draw21%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Havlíčkův BrodExpected goals in this matchBystřice nad Pernštejnem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.34

Havlíčkův Brod

2.17

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

1.34

Havlíčkův Brod creates 62% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 37 away

1.71

creates per match

1.19

1.49

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Havlíčkův Brod

1.71

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

1.19

allows per match

Havlíčkův Brod

1.49

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Havlíčkův Brod+0.00on par

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havlíčkův Brod ↓

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Havlíčkův Brod or draw

77%

Havlíčkův Brod or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

79%

Draw or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

44%

Winning margin

Havlíčkův Brod wins by 2+

34%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Havlíčkův Brod 1+ goals

89%

Havlíčkův Brod 2+ goals

64%

Havlíčkův Brod 3+ goals

36%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 1+ goals

74%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2+ goals

39%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Havlíčkův Brod (draw refunded)

71%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havlíčkův Brod at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havlíčkův Brod attack 1.71 + Bystřice nad Pernštejnem defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.17

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem attack 1.19 + Havlíčkův Brod defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Havlíčkův Brod scores more

56%

level

21%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem scores more

23%

Havlíčkův Brod at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Havlíčkův Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff