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Bystřice nad Pernštejnem vs Havlíčkův Brod — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Havlíčkův Brod
Havlíčkův Brod
5/7/20224. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 21Fotbalový stadion Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem31%
×Draw23%
Havlíčkův Brod46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.48
Havlíčkův Brod
1.85

Havlíčkův Brod creates 25% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 80 away

creates per match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.32
Havlíčkův Brod
1.32

allows per match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
2.37
Havlíčkův Brod
1.63

finishing

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem+0.00on par
Havlíčkův Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem ↓

Havlíčkův Brod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem or draw
54%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem or Havlíčkův Brod
77%
Draw or Havlíčkův Brod
69%

Winning margin

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem wins by 2+
14%
Havlíčkův Brod wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 1+ goals
77%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2+ goals
43%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 3+ goals
19%
Havlíčkův Brod 1+ goals
84%
Havlíčkův Brod 2+ goals
55%
Havlíčkův Brod 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem (draw refunded)
40%
Havlíčkův Brod (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.37 · 38 matches

Havlíčkův Brod away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.63 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem attack 1.32 + Havlíčkův Brod defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Havlíčkův Brod attack 1.32 + Bystřice nad Pernštejnem defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem scores more
31%
level
23%
Havlíčkův Brod scores more
46%

Havlíčkův Brod at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Havlíčkův Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bystřice nad Pernštejnem vs Havlíčkův Brod

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem beat Havlíčkův Brod 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie D on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Bystřice nad Pernštejnem in Bystřice nad Pernštejnem.