Havelse U19 1–1 Dynamo Dresden U19: Result & Stats

Havelse U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Dynamo Dresden U19

I. Qela 21'

M. Großer 80'

11/18/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 7Wilhelm-Langrehr-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Havelse U1944%

×Draw23%

Dynamo Dresden U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Havelse U19Expected goals in this matchDynamo Dresden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.56

Havelse U19

1.82

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.56

Havelse U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 80 away

1.89

creates per match

1.55

1.56

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Havelse U19

1.89

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.55

allows per match

Havelse U19

1.56

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Havelse U19+0.00on par

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havelse U19 ↓

Dynamo Dresden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Havelse U19 or draw

67%

Havelse U19 or Dynamo Dresden U19

77%

Draw or Dynamo Dresden U19

56%

Winning margin

Havelse U19 wins by 2+

24%

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Havelse U19 1+ goals

84%

Havelse U19 2+ goals

54%

Havelse U19 3+ goals

27%

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals

79%

Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals

46%

Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Havelse U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havelse U19 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Dynamo Dresden U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.76 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havelse U19 attack 1.89 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.82

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 1.55 + Havelse U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Havelse U19 scores more

44%

level

23%

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more

33%

Havelse U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Havelse U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

46'

70'

72'

77'

80'

Havelse

Dynamo

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: S. Gehrke

72'▲C. Teifel←▼I. Qela

Havelse U19 substitutes

TeifelElibolAkbasFigulaÖzdemirAvdulli

Manager: M. Lust

46'▲R. Sanin←▼M. Lebedev

70'▲A. Nathe←▼E. Jeong

77'▲N. Kubitz←▼N. Hünig

Dynamo Dresden U19 substitutes

SaninNatheKubitzKießetzBaumSchneiderMitsopoulos

U19 Bundesliga: Havelse U19 1–1 Dynamo Dresden U19

Havelse U19 and Dynamo Dresden U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 18, 2018.

Goals: I. Qela (21'), M. Großer (80').

The match was played at Wilhelm-Langrehr-Stadion in Garbsen.

Havelse U19 vs Dynamo Dresden U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Havelse U19 1–1 Dynamo Dresden U19