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Dynamo Dresden U19 vs Havelse U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Dynamo Dresden U19
Dynamo Dresden U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Havelse U19
Havelse U19
5/9/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dynamo Dresden U1933%
×Draw24%
Havelse U1943%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Dresden U19
1.38
Havelse U19
1.60

Havelse U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden U19
2.19
Havelse U19
1.67

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden U19
1.54
Havelse U19
0.56

finishing

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par
Havelse U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden U19 ↓

Havelse U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden U19 or draw
57%
Dynamo Dresden U19 or Havelse U19
76%
Draw or Havelse U19
67%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+
15%
Havelse U19 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals
75%
Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals
40%
Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals
16%
Havelse U19 1+ goals
80%
Havelse U19 2+ goals
47%
Havelse U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)
44%
Havelse U19 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.54 · 78 matches

Havelse U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 2.19 + Havelse U19 defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.38

Havelse U19 attack 1.67 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more
33%
level
24%
Havelse U19 scores more
43%

Havelse U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Havelse U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo Dresden U19 vs Havelse U19

Havelse U19 beat Dynamo Dresden U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on May 9, 2026.