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Havant & Wville vs Farnham Town — League #60 2026

Havant & Wville
Havant & Wville
FT
4 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Farnham Town
Farnham Town
R. Seager 79' (pen), 76', 66', 46'
O. Dean 58'
B. Taylor 50'
D. Sanders 6'
1/7/2026League #60League #60 · Round 10Westleigh Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Havant & Wville53%
×Draw19%
Farnham Town28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havant & Wville
2.63
Farnham Town
1.90

Havant & Wville creates 38% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Havant & Wville
4.25
Farnham Town
1.54

allows per match

Havant & Wville
2.25
Farnham Town
1.00

finishing

Havant & Wville+0.00on par
Farnham Town+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havant & Wville ↓

Farnham Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Havant & Wville or draw
72%
Havant & Wville or Farnham Town
81%
Draw or Farnham Town
47%

Winning margin

Havant & Wville wins by 2+
34%
Farnham Town wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Havant & Wville 1+ goals
93%
Havant & Wville 2+ goals
73%
Havant & Wville 3+ goals
48%
Farnham Town 1+ goals
85%
Farnham Town 2+ goals
56%
Farnham Town 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Havant & Wville (draw refunded)
66%
Farnham Town (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havant & Wville at home — creates 4.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Farnham Town away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havant & Wville attack 4.25 + Farnham Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.63

Farnham Town attack 1.54 + Havant & Wville defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Havant & Wville scores more
53%
level
19%
Farnham Town scores more
28%

Havant & Wville at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Havant & Wville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
D. Sanders
46'
R. Seager
50'
B. Taylor
58'
O. Dean
66'
R. Seager
76'
R. Seager
79'
R. SeagerPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Havant & Wville vs Farnham Town

Havant & Wville beat Farnham Town 4-3 in League #60 on January 7, 2026.

Goals: D. Sanders (6'), R. Seager (46', 66', 76', 79' pen), B. Taylor (50'), O. Dean (58').

The match was played at Westleigh Park in Havant, Hampshire.