Farnham Town 2–1 Havant & Wville: Result & Stats

Farnham Town

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Havant & Wville

M. Mackenzie 90'

O. Dean 35'

B. Wilson 34'

3/10/2026

League #60 · Round 29The Memorial Ground Farnham

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Farnham Town47%

×Draw24%

Havant & Wville29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Farnham TownExpected goals in this matchHavant & Wville

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.26

Farnham Town

1.69

Havant & Wville

1.26

Farnham Town creates 34% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

2.13

creates per match

1.25

1.27

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Farnham Town

2.13

Havant & Wville

1.25

allows per match

Farnham Town

1.27

Havant & Wville

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farnham Town+0.00on par

Havant & Wville+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farnham Town ↓

Havant & Wville →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Farnham Town or draw

71%

Farnham Town or Havant & Wville

76%

Draw or Havant & Wville

53%

Winning margin

Farnham Town wins by 2+

25%

Havant & Wville wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Farnham Town 1+ goals

82%

Farnham Town 2+ goals

50%

Farnham Town 3+ goals

24%

Havant & Wville 1+ goals

72%

Havant & Wville 2+ goals

36%

Havant & Wville 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Farnham Town (draw refunded)

62%

Havant & Wville (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farnham Town at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Havant & Wville away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farnham Town attack 2.13 + Havant & Wville defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.69

Havant & Wville attack 1.25 + Farnham Town defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Farnham Town scores more

47%

level

24%

Havant & Wville scores more

29%

Farnham Town at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Farnham Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

B. Wilson

35'

O. Dean

90'

M. Mackenzie

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff