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Havadar vs Baderan Tehran — Azadegan League 2018

Havadar
Havadar
FT
1 – 2
Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
12/16/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 5Ghadir Tehran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Havadar42%
×Draw29%
Baderan Tehran29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havadar
1.23
Baderan Tehran
0.96

Havadar creates 28% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Havadar
1.35
Baderan Tehran
1.22

allows per match

Havadar
0.71
Baderan Tehran
1.10

finishing

Havadar+0.00on par
Baderan Tehran+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havadar ↓

Baderan Tehran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Havadar or draw
71%
Havadar or Baderan Tehran
71%
Draw or Baderan Tehran
58%

Winning margin

Havadar wins by 2+
19%
Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Havadar 1+ goals
71%
Havadar 2+ goals
35%
Havadar 3+ goals
13%
Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
62%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
25%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Havadar (draw refunded)
60%
Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havadar at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Baderan Tehran away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havadar attack 1.35 + Baderan Tehran defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + Havadar defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Havadar scores more
42%
level
29%
Baderan Tehran scores more
29%

Havadar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Havadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Havadar 1–2 Baderan Tehran

Baderan Tehran beat Havadar 2-1 in Azadegan League on December 16, 2020.

The match was played at Ghadir Tehran Stadium in Tehran.