Baderan Tehran 0–2 Havadar: Result & Stats

Baderan Tehran

FT

0 – 2

Havadar

4/26/2021

Azadegan League · Round 22Martyrs Stadium Islamshahr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Baderan Tehran38%

×Draw33%

Havadar30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baderan TehranExpected goals in this matchHavadar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.83

Baderan Tehran

0.98

Havadar

0.83

Baderan Tehran creates 18% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 32 away

1.27

creates per match

0.78

0.88

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Baderan Tehran

1.27

Havadar

0.78

allows per match

Baderan Tehran

0.88

Havadar

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par

Havadar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Havadar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw

70%

Baderan Tehran or Havadar

67%

Draw or Havadar

62%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+

14%

Havadar wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals

62%

Baderan Tehran 2+ goals

26%

Baderan Tehran 3+ goals

8%

Havadar 1+ goals

56%

Havadar 2+ goals

20%

Havadar 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)

56%

Havadar (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Havadar away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.69 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.27 + Havadar defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.98

Havadar attack 0.78 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more

38%

level

33%

Havadar scores more

30%

Baderan Tehran at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff