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Havadar vs Arman Gohar — Azadegan League 2018

Havadar
Havadar
FT
2 – 0
Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
5/19/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 25Martyrs Stadium Islamshahr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Havadar51%
×Draw27%
Arman Gohar21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havadar
1.40
Arman Gohar
0.80

Havadar creates 75% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Havadar
1.35
Arman Gohar
0.90

allows per match

Havadar
0.71
Arman Gohar
1.44

finishing

Havadar+0.00on par
Arman Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havadar ↓

Arman Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Havadar or draw
79%
Havadar or Arman Gohar
73%
Draw or Arman Gohar
49%

Winning margin

Havadar wins by 2+
25%
Arman Gohar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Havadar 1+ goals
75%
Havadar 2+ goals
41%
Havadar 3+ goals
17%
Arman Gohar 1+ goals
55%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
19%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Havadar (draw refunded)
70%
Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havadar at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Arman Gohar away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havadar attack 1.35 + Arman Gohar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Arman Gohar attack 0.90 + Havadar defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Havadar scores more
51%
level
27%
Arman Gohar scores more
21%

Havadar at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Havadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Havadar 2–0 Arman Gohar

Havadar beat Arman Gohar 2-0 in Azadegan League on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Martyrs Stadium Islamshahr in Eslamshahr.